Baselines for Land-use Change in the Tropics: Application to Avoided Deforestation Projects

S. Brown, M. Hall, K. Andrasko, F. Ruiz, W. Marzoli, G. Guerrero, O. Masera, A. Dushku, B. DeJong and J. Cornell, 2007. Baselines for Land-use Change in the Tropics: Application to Avoided Deforestation Projects. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 12 No. 6: pp. 1001-1026.

In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors.